2024 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special

We’ll replace this text all through the season, together with all our predictions, so be certain that to maintain checking IndieWire for the most recent information from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination spherical of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations introduced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, last voting commences on August 15 and ends the night time of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to happen on Sunday, September 15, and air stay on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

Click on on for extra of our earlier ideas on what to anticipate on the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.

The Emmy nominations for Excellent Documentary or Nonfiction Particular had been undoubtedly extra predictable than their counterparts on the collection finish. Many of the initiatives acknowledged match the mildew of what has gained lately, with one nominee “Women State” even being the sequel to the 2021 winner “Boys State” (each movies are distributed by Apple TV+.)

Since then although, the winners have been profiles of popular culture icons that particularly made their mark within the TV area. “George Carlin’s American Dream” successful in 2022 bodes nicely for Disney+ and director Ron Howard’s possibilities to win for “Jim Henson Concept Man,” which equally takes a posthumous have a look at a artistic that blazed his personal path that also looms giant over at this time’s tradition.

However the Emmys actually can take numerous campaigning, and “Albert Brooks: Defending My Life” had the ability to not solely convey out the titular comedy legend for uncommon public appearances in promotion of the movie, however has been doing them together with his finest pal Rob Reiner, a two-time Emmy winner, who directed the venture. The newest winner within the class, “Nonetheless: A Michael J. Fox Film,” is of an analogous ilk to the HBO documentary, the place a part of the attraction to voters is having the topic of the movie out and about, reminding folks why they fell in love together with his work within the first place.

“Steve! (Martin) A Documentary in 2 Items,” one other nominee from Apple TV+ additionally matches that sort, however once more, these items can require some campaigning, and the venture’s topic is already very busy together with his different Emmy-nominated TV venture “Solely Murders within the Constructing.” There’s a probability although that voters simply could really feel one thing is within the air, particularly with Martin’s massive Season 3 musical quantity getting an additional Emmy nomination for the Hulu collection, inflicting them to really feel like now’s the proper time to present the comedic actor his flowers. It might even be the primary Emmy for director Morgan Neville, who has turn into an enormous title within the documentary world after his 2014 Oscar win.

“The Biggest Evening in Pop,” Netflix’s nominee directed by Bao Nguyen, is tons of enjoyable in its retelling of how “We Are the World” got here collectively, however the place it might fall brief in voters is that the initiatives they appear interested in are extra in depth on a person’s physique of labor fairly than one which seize a cultural second involving a number of well-known events that would all have their very own documentaries.

Nominees are listed so as of their chance to win.

Energy Rankings:

1. “Albert Brooks: Defending My Life” (HBO)
2. “Jim Henson Concept Man” (Disney+)
3. “Steve! (Martin) A Documentary in 2 Items” (Apple TV+)
4. “Women State” (Apple TV+)
5. “The Biggest Evening in Pop” (Netflix)

Will Win: “Albert Brooks: Defending My Life”
May Win: “Jim Henson Concept Man”
Ought to Win: “Jim Henson Concept Man”

Extra Class Predictions:
Excellent Animated Program
Excellent Discuss Sequence
Excellent Scripted Selection Sequence
Excellent Documentary or Nonfiction Sequence

View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.

Final Yr’s Winner: “Nonetheless: A Michael J. Fox Film”
Nonetheless Eligible: No.
Sizzling Streak: Ought to “Women State” particularly win this class, it might not solely be two Emmys in a row for Apple TV+, however it might be one other win for the filmmakers, who made the venture as a comply with as much as “Boys State,” the Emmy-winning documentary from 2020.
Notable Ineligible Sequence: “20 Days in Mariupol” (ineligible as a 2024 Oscar nominee); “Bobi Wine: The Individuals’s President” (ineligible as a 2024 Oscar nominee); “The Everlasting Reminiscence” (ineligible as a 2024 Oscar nominee); “To Kill a Tiger” (ineligible as a 2024 Oscar nominee); “Energy” (the movie was not submitted for Emmys consideration); “Federer: Twelve Last Days” (the movie is not going to premiere in time to be eligible); “I Am: Celine Dion” (the movie is not going to premiere in time to be eligible)