The nominations announcement of the PGA Awards 2025 made for a troublesome morning for the “Nickel Boys” and “Sing Sing” Oscar campaigns specifically.
As a result of the Producers Guild of America makes use of the identical system because the Academy to find out its nominees for Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Excellent Producer of Theatrical Movement Photos — a preferential poll with 10 slots— it’s seen general as essentially the most correct precursor for Greatest Image. In reality, its nominees utterly mirrored what the Greatest Image nominees had been in 2024.
Have issues actually modified that a lot between now and December, when the winners of the AFI Awards had been introduced? Lately that awards physique has been nearly as correct at predicting the ultimate 10 Greatest Image nominees, usually solely leaving out the worldwide titles. For instance, the American Movie Institute had “Could December” and “Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse” final yr as a substitute of eventual nominees “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Curiosity,” however the latter movies weren’t produced in the US.
Simply primarily based off these two lists, and all of the nominations which have occurred in between, the most secure bets for a Greatest Image nomination are “A Full Unknown,” “A Actual Ache,” “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” “Dune: Half Two,” “Emilia Pérez,” and “Depraved.” One can surmise that “The Substance” was not on the AFI record as a result of it’s a French manufacturing. The physique horror hit first learn as too gory for Academy members’ tastes when it first premiered at Cannes, however is peaking on the proper second, straight after Demi Moore gained Greatest Actress in a Comedy or Musical on the Golden Globes. A Greatest Image nomination appears imminent at this level.
The true wild card is “September 5.” First being shopped round at fall festivals by Republic Photos, which is a Paramount firm, the studio lastly purchased it for itself after receiving nice suggestions on it from critics. However it’s a difficult title to marketing campaign for awards. The movie is a real ensemble piece with its most well-known star being Peter Sarsgaard, who had lengthy been thought-about extra of a personality actor. The truth that “September 5” is about how ABC Sports activities lined the kidnapping and homicide of the 11 members of the Israeli workforce by Black September on the 1972 Munich Olympics provides it a way of timeliness, because the battle between Israel and Palestine stays prime of thoughts, however there haven’t been any extra Oscar classes that the movie has ever felt aggressive in.
There has at all times been an concept that the PGA Awards are extra populist than the Oscars, so it’s not simply “September 5” that doesn’t appear destined to make the ultimate minimize. There may be simply as simply a case to be made for a “Dune: Half Two” snub. However despite being an awards physique that has so little overlap with the Academy, the Golden Globes nominations did find yourself being an early signal that the Oscar prospects for critically beloved indies “Sing Sing” and “Nickel Boys” have slowed down throughout the board.
Diverting our consideration over to the PGA Awards 2025 TV nominations, which had been additionally introduced on January 16, the Comedy Collection class gives extra of the identical, with frequent Emmy winners “Hacks,” “The Bear,” “Abbott Elementary,” and “Solely Murders within the Constructing” all making the minimize alongside the farewell season of “Curb Your Enthusiasm.” The Drama Collection class options reveals like “Dangerous Sisters,” “The Diplomat,” and “Sluggish Horses,” which have been build up their awards profiles with every season, however FX phenomenon “Shōgun” nonetheless appears exhausting to beat. “Child Reindeer” can also be an intimidating drive within the Restricted Collection class, however newcomer “The Penguin” has to this point been the one contender not eligible for the 2024 Emmys to win a number of occasions throughout the winter TV awards season. Jury is out although on if “The Batman” spinoff collection stays a restricted collection by the point Emmy season rolls round.
