Some years, it feels just like the winners of the Oscars have been pre-determined nicely upfront of the particular ceremony. In 2025, although, predicting who will win on the 97th annual Academy Awards is way more up within the air. Even the consultants are saying this: “Are you able to bear in mind a season the place there’s ever been this a lot swapping of the No. 1 seat? The quantity of occasions everybody was so certain concerning the front-runner, after which it could change within the subsequent couple of days,” an awards season strategist just lately instructed Vulture.
Who had been the frontrunners when the Academy was really voting on this yr’s awards? That’s what we’re making an attempt to guess. To tackle this problem, sondramedia has assembled its personal crew of consultants: this humble leisure editor, knowledgeable betting professional (James Leyfield of Casinos.com), and a voting member of the Academy of Movement Image Arts and Sciences (in any other case generally known as AMPAS), who has requested to stay nameless.
Beneath, please discover all of our picks. As a result of we’re all concerning the drama, this may begin with our predictions for the smaller awards, earlier than constructing as much as Greatest Image.
Writing (Unique Screenplay)
Anora (Neon)
James’ Prediction: Sean Baker, Anora
I feel it’s going to be Anora’s yr — and a Greatest Unique Screenplay win can play a component in that.
Liz’s Prediction: Sean Baker, Anora
this yr’s nominees, Anora feels prefer it has the momentum to win right here, at the very least — and it’ll be well-deserved, as Sean Baker’s script is a real curler coaster of romance and betrayal.
AMPAS Voter’s Prediction: Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Palms down. Palms down. It’s essentially the most inventive. And I frankly haven’t forgotten the movie since watching it. It’s caught in my head eternally. To me, it’s no competitors.
Writing (Tailored Screenplay)
Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM Studios)
James’ Prediction: Peter Straughan, Conclave
Hallelujah! This award appears to have Conclave’s title on it. The film received Greatest Screenplay on the Golden Globes and Greatest Tailored Screenplay on the BAFTAs because of Peter Straughan’s writing. Nonetheless, Nickel Boys might be hoping to work a miracle throughout Sunday’s ceremony: I nonetheless fancy Conclave to sneak it, however Joslyn Barnes and RaMell Ross’ screenplay is gaining traction.
Liz’s Prediction: Peter Straughan, Conclave
In a simply world, this might go to Nickel Boys. However that is in all probability Conclave’s to take, provided that not one of the different nominees have the identical form of Greatest Image momentum. (It’s additionally a really stable adaptation, a screenplay that strikes by means of its story with clear precision.) That mentioned, that is one other class the place if A Full Unknown wins, its Greatest Image odds enhance immensely.
AMPAS Voter’s Prediction: Nickel Boys
This one was more durable for me as a result of there have been some actually good adaptions, I feel. However simply total, the expertise that you simply obtained from this adaptation — it’s Nickel Boys. That stood out essentially the most to me. It’s so completely different and it’s so refreshing. It actually does deserve that recognition.
